IMF warns global debt could reach 121 percent of GDP amid Middle East conflict

Apr 15, 2026, 1:04:05 PM UTC(9 hours ago)

Impact: Very High

Affected Assets

The IMF April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could slash regional GDP growth by two percentage points to 1.9 percent.
Under an adverse scenario involving energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, global public debt is expected to rise by 7 percentage points within three years.
Emerging markets and low-income energy importers are identified as the most vulnerable to rising borrowing costs and fiscal constraints.
The United Kingdom is forecast to experience the most significant growth hit among rich nations due to the economic spillovers of the Iran war escalation.
IMF officials are urging central banks to remain vigilant and recommending that any new fiscal support be temporary and narrowly targeted to preserve stability.

IMF: IN ADVERSE CIRCUMSTANCES, GLOBAL GOVERNMENT DEBT COULD HIT 117% OF GDP IMF: PROLONGED CONFLICT IN MIDDLE EAST COULD PUSH DEBT TO 121% OF GDP